Knowledge
of the seasonal variation in births and deaths during normal years is important
for analyses of the effects of wars, famines, epidemics or similar privations
on these variables. In studies of seasonality, multiple trigonometric
regression models are more flexible than the simple sine curve. The seasonal
variation in mortality in Iceland, 1856-1990, shows a strong secular decrease,
and a connection between this and the epidemiological transition is considered.
For equidistant data, the regressor vectors are orthogonal, resulting in
parameter estimates that are uncorrelated and independent of the number of
trigonometric terms in the models. Comparisons with findings in other European
countries are made. The temporal trends in Iceland of the birth components; the
twinning rate, the still birth rate and the secondary sex ratio, are presented
and compared with the corresponding values in neighbouring countries. No marked
differences were emerged. During the first stage of the epidemiological
transition the seasonal variation in deaths and births was mainly a result of
the living conditions. Therefore, years marked by severe famine or other crises
have had strong effects on the seasonal patterns. This can be seen in the data
from Iceland during the 19th century. For Icelandic males, one has to include
drownings as an important indicator of the harsh living conditions. In the
first half of the 19th century, the fishermen had a hard life when they
practised their profession and braved the Atlantic storms in the small vessels
of that time. Until the 20th century, the sex ratio for the Icelandic
population was low relative to the sex ratio for both Norway and Denmark,
indicating the greater effect of the fluctuations in mortality on males than on
females.
Biography of author(s)
Dr. Fellman Johan
Hanken
School of Economics, Finland
Read full article: http://bp.bookpi.org/index.php/bpi/catalog/view/23/56/141-1
View Volume: https://doi.org/10.9734/bpi/ctmmr/v2
View Volume: https://doi.org/10.9734/bpi/ctmmr/v2
Comments
Post a Comment